विकास बढ़ा रुतबा चढ़ा

भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था जापान को पीछे छोड़ते हुआ दुनिया की चौथी सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था बन गई है। अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष (आईएमएफ) की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, भारत की जीडीपी ने 4.187 खरब डॉलर है। इस आर्थिक विकास ने भारत को वैश्विक स्तर पर सबसे तेजी से बढ़ने वाली प्रमुख अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में से एक बना दिया है। इस विकास यात्रा में विभिन्न वैश्विक चुनौतियों के दौरान भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था ने लचीलापन और अनुकूलनशीलता प्रदर्शित की है, जिसमें कोविड-19 महामारी, आपूर्ति शृंखला व्यवधान और भू-राजनीतिक तनाव भी शामिल हैं।

आर्थिक विकास में कृषि व विनिर्माण जैसे पारंपरिक क्षेत्रों के अलावा सेवा और प्रौद्योगिकी क्षेत्र की महत्वपूर्ण भूमिका रही है। ये क्षेत्र न केवल अर्थव्यवस्था को संरचनात्मक विविधता प्रदान करते हैं, बल्कि विकास के वाहक और जोखिम शमन तंत्र प्रदान करने के साथ-साथ भारत को दुनिया का उत्पादन केंद्र बनने के इसके सपने को आधार भी प्रदान करते हैं।

Who is Terrorist?: Entrepreneurs or Terrorists

India dreams of becoming a developed country by 2047. It is not impossible to achieve this big and ambitious dream but it is definitely very difficult; almost near impossible if all the players don’t do their parts properly. The biggest difficulty in this is the mind-set of Indian citizens and that situation is very peculiar.

A strange belief has developed in the Indian psyche, which considers traders and big businessmen as criminals and capital as wrong and sometimes sinful. Poverty has been glorified in Indian texts (however, poverty was glorified for the Brahmans, the knowledge preachers and the teaching community). Not only this, the Indian media as well as the society have developed a tendency to give a clean chit to criminals based on caste and region. Corruption has become such a dignified act that it is now the new normal to come out of the vicious circle of poverty. Not only this, even in terrorists, the family background of terrorists and who is a teacher's son often becomes a topic of national discussion!

India's GDP may become 50 trillion dollars, and per capita income may even exceed that of America, but as long as India keeps looking for criminals among traders and big businessmen and a teacher's son among terrorists, it is impossible for India to become a truly developed country.

Why None Supported India during Operation Sindoor?

For those questioning India's foreign policy, they need to read the following piece of information (news clipping).

'India aims to sell defence equipment worth Rs 50,000 crore to the world by 2029.'

The size of the world defence market is more than $600 billion, and by 2029, the market is expected to grow to the size of around $900 billion. Rs 50,000 crore is less than $4 billion, which is about just 2% of the total global market! So this piece of information may look very ordinary. But the fact is that it is not. It is a matter of concern for every country; those which export defence equipment to other countries of the world and those which import defence equipment from other countries.

India has traditionally been an importer and a net buyer of defence equipment. But India aspires to become an exporter of defence equipment, and that too in some key areas, which are dominated by developed countries and China only. Not only this, but India seems to be very aggressive about it. That means there is another serious player on the block, which is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world in just a few years and has a very young population that wouldn’t only drive demand and growth in the economy but would also engage in research and development!

History of the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World

There was a streak of events in history that made the economy of the US strong enough following the British economy that its currency, the US dollar, is now the world's reserve currency.

It all began in the late Eighteenth century when the USA emerged to be one of the most significant economies for numerous economies of the Western world, especially Latin America.

Early Beginnings

• 1785: The United States formally designated the dollar as its currency following the Continental Congress' declaration.
• 1792: The Coinage Act founded the U.S. Mint and implemented a fixed-basis bimetallic standard using gold and silver.
• 1800s: As the British pound sterling, the world's largest Empire's currency, dominated world trade, the U.S. dollar slowly increased in stature as the economic power of America developed.

The 19th century witnessed the United States evolving from a fledgling power to a powerhouse of economics. As the industrial strength of America grew, so did the global presence of its currency, the US dollar. Nevertheless, throughout the 19th century, sterling was still the world's most prevalent reserve currency, leaving very little room for any other currency. But the US dollar continued to grow its footprint and became indispensable to most countries in bilateral exchanges with the US as the US reconfigured its industrial capacity. The British Sterling was still the most powerful currency in the world during the 19th century.

Changing US Trade Policy and World Economy

The trade policy of America has evolved over one century post the First World War. As soon as the Second World War started, the USA saw an opportunity in that war that was going on in Europe and elsewhere in the world. The US was convinced that Europe would undergo the hammer of the war, and post-war, a lot of reconstruction and other business opportunities were openly available. The fall of Japan in the war made the USA the only big economy in the world to take care of the needs of Europe and the rest of the world!

The US invested in capacity building across all the sectors, which eventually helped to earn huge money during wartime. Because of the wartime crisis, the US accepted gold for transactions, which led to a huge accumulation of gold in the US. Following World War II, the United States provided the Marshall Plan (European Recovery Plan) to Western Europe to rebuild Europe, championing free trade by reducing interstate trade barriers and globalisation, helping establish the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and later the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This system aimed to gradually reduce global trade barriers.

Is Golbalization Going Dead?

The US President Trump has announced reciprocal tariffs. However, it is available with a rider of a 90-day pause for most of the economies except China and a few other retaliatory economies. This has created chaos in the whole world in general and the security markets in particular. Now, the US has the highest average import tariffs since 1938, when its tariffs peaked at 15.5%, which started falling once the Second World War started in 1939. Post implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the average import tariff rate would be 14.5% in comparison to 2.4% in 2024.

It should be noted that globalisation and free trade were the brainchildren of the USA, which were implemented across the globe through the UNO, IMF, World Bank, WTO (erstwhile GATT) and other multilateral agencies and negotiations to achieve the economic goals of the developed economies in general and the USA in particular. The US used these two concepts and these agencies to turn the US dollar into the reserve currency of the world, eventually replacing gold.

Should India Respond to the Unilateral Reciprocal Tariffs?

India has become an important player in international trade post its integration with the global economy after liberalisation in the 1990s. At present, India has a trade-to-GDP ratio of about 40%. India mainly exports textiles, medicines and IT services while importing petroleum products and high-tech machinery. Reciprocal tariffs are used as tools either to retaliate or challenge the trade balance. The USA has announced it to impose 26% tariffs on Indian exports to the USA. Though the USA has pushed a 90-day pause button for most countries, barring China and a few countries which have responded to the 2nd April annulments of the US President.

Reciprocal tariffs are in alignment with mercantilist principles and aimed at protecting the domestic markets by matching the foreign trade barriers. According to the classical theory of trade (Ricardo), tariffs distort comparative advantage and increase consumers' costs lowering welfare. Reciprocal tariffs can, however, protect infant industries and balance out trade deficits. For India, an emerging economy with both mature and infant industries, the effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs would depend upon the extent, targeting, and tenure.

Anything But China

America's new motto is 'Anything But China'. Considering the dominating personality of the US President Trump which is more consistent with the US’s image of Inspector, the present day US seems to be quite against Chinese hegemony in manufactured goods which dominates not only the US markets but the whole world ignoring the fact that it is the US who allowed China to create manufacturing hegemony to just keep dollar as only global exchange and reserve currency. However, a lot of water has gone through the rivers, and China aspires to become the new Inspector of the world and the US is not liking this!

President Trump started a trade war against China in 2018, which couldn’t achieve much for the US. However, in this, he seems to be determined to tame China by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods. In response to the US tariffs, China announced retaliatory tariffs against the US to counter the 2nd April announcement of the US President and has been caught red-handed. The US has increased the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. The US has retaliated against every country that has increased tariffs against the US when it pushed a 90-day pause button on the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs. However, if the world sustains this shock, it will accelerate the de-dollarisation movement, and this movement will gain momentum as the US has indirectly announced that it doesn’t want to be the big brother of inspector of the world!

तीर्थयात्राएं: तब और अब

तार्किक से तार्किक व्यक्ति भी तर्क करना कुतर्क से ही प्रारम्भ करता है। फिर दोनों के बीच की भिन्नता को समझकर तर्क के कला में पारंगत होता है। हालांकि कि व्यक्ति कई बार पुरानी आदत दुहराने भी लगता है। वैसे भी मंडल साहब तो मंडल साहब हैं। उनका लेवल ही अलग है।

खैर!

पहले लोग बुढ़ापे में ही तीर्थ करने की सोचते थे। उसका कारण ये नहीं था कि उन बुजुर्ग तीर्थ यात्रियों को ये लगता हो कि इस तीर्थयात्रा मात्र से उन्हें मोक्ष मिल जाएगा! नहीं, ऐसा नहीं था। उन्हें पता था कि इस तीर्थयात्रा से उनके द्वारा किए कर्मों का जो बोझ है वो कुछ हद तक उनके मन से उतर जाएगा। यही समस्त धार्मिक कर्मकाण्डों की अन्तिम परिणिति है। और यदि ये ना हो तो दुनिया में पागलखानों की बाढ़ आ जाए! साथ ही लोगों को पूर्ण विश्वास है कि इन धार्मिक कार्यों से उनका आने वाला समय पहले से कुछ अच्छा हो जाएगा! इसलिए समाज को आशान्वित व संतुलित रखने के लिए धर्म भी आवश्यक है; तीर्थ भी आवश्यक है और थोड़ा बहुत कर्मकाण्ड भी आवश्यक है।

Indian Stock Market to Grow Despite FIIs Withdrawing

The Indian stock market has been in jitters for some time. In the last 6 months, FIIs have withdrawn huge amounts of money from the Indian market. In the last 1.5 months alone, FIIs have withdrawn about ₹1 lakh crores from Indian markets. Despite this, the market has gone by about 15% and 6% only in the last six months and 1.5 months respectively.

What does it mean for Indian markets?

This simply means that Indian markets, though still being affected by the FII investments are not as dominated as were previously! The young investors in India are on the scene. They have invested about ₹2 lakh crores in markets in the last 6 months. Rather than leaving the market, they are investing, unlike the earlier trends!

This shows the confidence and optimism of young investors in Indian markets and the Indian economy. This confidence will change the attitude of FIIs. Also, the new Trump Administration in the USA would become more predictable. These together will attract back the FIIs to India.