Iran has been an important market for Indian goods. In 2024, India exported products worth about 1.25 billion dollars to Iran. Indian exports include basmati rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery.
But this war has disrupted these trade flows. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Indian basmati rice are currently stuck at ports or in transit, as shipping routes and insurance coverage have been disrupted.
There has been a lot of hue and cry about De-dollarization post reckless tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, but de-dollarization is still in the realm of rhetoric, and not in reality. The demand for US bonds is increasing, especially in the wake of the rise in geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.
The US dollar is the most dominant reserve currency in the world. It constitutes 58% of the total reserves. Presently, nearly 90% of the total Forex transactions are denominated in the US dollar. This is a position that has remained unchanged since the Bretton Woods agreement. Statistics indicate that the total amount of US bonds held by foreign countries has hit a record high of nearly $9.4 trillion by the end of 2025. Japan remains the largest creditor at $1.2 trillion end-2025, unchanged from 2020 levels, with many countries like the UK have increased their dollar holdings. De-dollarization efforts by the BRICS countries, fuelled by China and buzz-town in India, like the RBI's efforts to link digital currencies seems more like a media creation, and the efforts are yet to come to fruition. However, on the other hand, the policies adopted by President Trump are increasing the chances of diversification, fuelling the speculation about de-dollarization.
Every country in the world strives to maintain good relations with almost all countries, just as we strive to maintain good relations with our neighbors and relatives. However, when it comes to protecting interests and choosing partners among many, a country strives to maintain good relations with the country with which it has the greatest interest. A country that provides the lowest value is not significant and receives the last preference. India has relations with almost all the Middle East countries based on people migration and mutual trade.
Post the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family in a US-Israeli led joint attack, the second phase of the US-led regime change effort in Iran has moved to the next stage. The first phase was to cause an internal protest against the Khamenei regime that had been gaining momentum in urban and rural Iran for months stirring Irani citizens in and outside Iran. Now, in the third phase, Iran's former dynasty, the Pahlavi dynasty, which still enjoys considerable support in Iran, will likely emerge in a leaderless Iran.
The price of Bitcoin is currently around $63,218, and the
total market cap of crypto has fallen below $2.3 trillion. The prices even
touch $62,700. Platforms like CryptoQuant indicates that the crypto bearish,
with BTC below its one-year moving average. It seems that the prices of Bitcoin
may further fall.
The current situation in the crypto market looks like previous winters, which saw 70-85% corrections, low trading volume, and capitulation events, such as those in 2018 or 2022, which lasted for 12 months. Along with the selling pressure, macroeconomic headwinds are also causing problems for the cryptocurrencies. The Fed rate is expected to range 3.5% to 3.75%. It is enough to suppress risk appetite. Apart from this, Trump’s policies are also resulting in regulatory uncertainty despite Trump’s pro-crypto policies. If black swans such as rate hike or global economic crisis or even slowdown hit the economy, Bitcoin will become weaker leading to fall in volume which would freeze the market.
