Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine’s capital Kyiv is starting today. Before arriving in Kyiv, he stops in Poland. This visit by the Indian Prime Minister is taking place at a time when Ukraine has attacked the Southern territory of Kursk in Russia and occupied a large area of Russian land!
This visit by the Indian PM is like an unsolved puzzle. At a time when it is possible that Russia, the most trusted friend of India, may not appreciate this visit, Is Modiji visiting Kyiv simply to maintain a balance between Russia and Ukraine
Looking at the tradeoff between profit and loss, it does not seem so simple.
India, since the very beginning, has been against the Ukraine-Russia war and has been advocating a peaceful resolution. Not only this India has been trying to convince both countries to end this war!
At present, people within Russia are unhappy and dissatisfied with the stand of President Putin. This dissatisfaction is increasing day by day. It must be making President Putin worried. Perhaps, at present, Putin wants a respectable end to this war. Not just Putin but the situation of Zelensky is not easy at home in Ukraine! Rather Zelensky is also in the same situation as Putin. There is huge opposition in Ukraine regarding this dragging war. On top of that, Zelensky is dependent on the help of foreign countries for this war! So most of the odds are against Ukraine at present! It seems that Zelensky also wants a respectable end to this unending war of egos! Perhaps that is why Ukraine is getting aggressive on the Russian border so that Russia can also become sensitive towards the interests of Ukraine and is under pressure when negotiations take place!
The most important thing is that till now Russia has not made any negative comment on Modi's Ukraine visit!
So how should this situation be interpreted? There is no clear answer to it. But there are some theories which are floating around the world.
It seems that PM Modi is visiting Ukraine to understand the mood of Ukraine and its President Zelensky and then to become a bridge between the two leaders so that the closed channel of backdoor diplomacy can be revived.
This theory is taking rounds because this visit does not seem to provide any direct benefit to India from anywhere! So for India, at first stance, this visit does not look beneficial, but the exit of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh and a military coup there have made things complicated for India. Bangladesh is being considered a failure of Indian foreign policy!
If Narendra Modi is to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiation table and both countries arrive at a compromise, then it would be a big achievement for India! This will not only provide a positive impression of India in world diplomacy but also boost the image of Modiji nationally as well as internationally. And it would prove a booster dose for his image which has relatively weakened post General elections!
Rajeev K Upadhyay
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