Ukraine has attacked Russia and entered Russian territory Kursk and advancing in Southern Russia. This has irked Russia and Vladimir Putin. The obvious response would be a very harsh attack with more intensity. This bold move of Ukraine to attack and enter into Russia has unlocked the frozen conflict, with quid pro quo response. Russia was not expecting such a response from Ukraine. So Russians have been taken by surprise. Though, it would be very difficult for Ukraine to hold its position in Russian lands. So the key to the outcome of this move completely depends on Ukraine's ability to sustain and hold on to this gain which wouldn't be that easy for Ukraine with a relatively very small army and lesser military equipment, even though NATO is there to support Ukraine from outside!
As per the claims by Ukraine's top commander, Ukrainian forces control about 1,000 sq km of Russian territory of Kursk. This claim seems exaggerated but let’s accept it as it is. Though, nevertheless, it is the biggest cross-border incursion since the beginning of the war. This is going to completely change a lot of things in both Russia and Ukraine. The said incursion and capture of Russian lands by the Ukrainian army will increase support for the Ukrainian President Zelensky among the nationalist Ukrainians. But at the same time, this will also expand the support base for the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin was being questioned by many Russian citizens for this unending war. This war with Ukraine was expected to become the Vietnam moment for Russia. But this incursion has given more power and reasons to Putin to fight this war with more intensity with no question being asked internally. So this will make his claims in Ukraine more valid than ever!
Both sides are claiming heavy casualties and these claims of casualties and incursion are new chips for the leaders of both the countries. The position of Zelensky is more vulnerable than Putin. Putin has to convince only Russian citizens while the same is not true with Zelensky. Zelensky does need to assure his citizens as well as the Western partners that Ukraine is still fighting this war and it is worth fighting! Unlike Russia, Ukraine is completely dependent on the Western aid and it is essential for Ukraine to convince its western partners of its combat capabilities against Russia to keep receiving aid, in an uncertain US election outcome. So Zelensky will do whatever is needed to strengthen his position before the results of US Presidential elections are out.
Many are wondering whether Russia will increase the escalation on the borders or not, remains to be seen! But looking back at history, Putin will not let it go. Because Putin has already announced on Aug 12, 2024, about no further peace talks with Ukraine, alleging attack on Russian civilians and nuclear facilities. This will change the whole narrative in Russia increasing pressure to fight back! The Russian establishment is working day and night on containing the incursion along with inflicting damages everywhere and from all possible fronts in Ukraine. The goal of the Russian establishment is to completely push Ukrainians out of Russian territory than to get a bargaining chip in negotiations.
Many in India wonder about the proposed visit to Ukraine by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Because when this visit was planned and announced, the situation was completely different than now! This visit will create some controversy for sure and perhaps it will also draw negative attention in Russia and Moscow wouldn’t like the Indian PM lending his support to Ukraine. It would be interesting to see how India manages this peculiar situation. India has since day one maintained that the border dispute between Russia and Ukraine should be resolved peacefully!
Rajeev K Upadhyay
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